Assessing the psychological and mechanical impact of electoral rules: A quasi-experiment |
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Authors: | André Blais,Maxime Hé roux-Legault,Laura Stephenson,William Cross,Elisabeth Gidengil |
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Affiliation: | 1. Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal, Québec H3C 3J7, Canada;2. Western University, 1151 Richmond St, London, Ontario N6A 3K6, Canada;3. Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada;4. McGill University, 845 Sherbrook Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T5, Canada |
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Abstract: | The paper assesses the influence of electoral rules on vote choice and election outcomes using a quasi-experiment conducted during a recent Canadian provincial election. Respondents were invited to vote under three voting systems (first past the post, alternative voting and proportional representation) and to answer a short questionnaire. We examine how the distribution of votes and seats is affected, and we ascertain how much of the total difference is due to psychological and mechanical effects. We find that a PR system would have increased legislative fractionalization by the equivalent of one effective party and that the mechanical effect is much more important than the psychological effect. As for AV, its mechanical and psychological effects act in opposite directions. |
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Keywords: | Electoral systems Canada FPTP AV PR Quasi-experiment |
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