后军人时代缅甸的“双头政治”及其外交影响

缅甸进入后军人时代后,国内呈现由军人集团和文官政府组成的"双头政治"权力格局,这种格局是前军人集团政治设计的结果,对现在缅甸的外交政策有很大影响。在外交政策的制定、落实和应对国际压力的过程中,"双头政治"的博弈因少数民族的政治参与而变得更加复杂,体现为军人、文官政府和少数民族的"三方博弈"。在缅北民族和解进程中,各方政治力量的博弈使得缅甸陷入既需要外部帮助斡旋而又让外部难以有效参与的困境。在中资大项目问题上,这些博弈导致缅甸对华政策出现"依赖"与"反依赖"纠葛,而中缅关系无法有效推进的局面。在若开罗兴亚人问题上,各方博弈更使缅甸陷入国际道义、政治与法律围攻的窘境。究其根本,缅甸仍停留在"求稳定"与"求发展"的初级阶段,而国内长期存在的政治认同分歧与族群割裂,使其在后军人时代可能进入另一个"乱局"。军人势力仍然强大、文官政权软弱、少数民族各自进行不同程度的国际动员,各方"自助"而"不得助"的客观形势,使得民盟政府初期良好的外交环境日益恶劣。因国内政治而不断引发外交危机,缅甸孜孜以求的独立自主、中立主义和韧性外交受到极大影响,缅甸的复兴梦与发展梦未有穷期。

Diarchy of Myanmar in Post-Military Era and Its Foreign Effects

After entering the post-military era,Myanmar government formed a diarchy structure composed of Tamataw(the military)and civilian government.This structure results from the political design of former military government,which largely affects current Myanmar’s foreign policy decisions.In the process of making and implementing foreign policies,and responding to international pressures,the games of diarchy have become more complicated due to the political participation of ethnic minorities,which is reflected in the"tripartite game"of Tamataw,civilian government and ethnic minorities.In the case of national reconciliation in northern Myanmar,these games have caused Myanmar to suffer from the dilemma of the need from external predicament and inefficient external participation.In the case of Chinese-funded large projects,these games have entangled Myanmar’s relation with China to be neither reliance nor anti-reliance on China,whereas Sino-Myanmar relations cannot be effectively push forward.In the Rakhine issues,these games put Myanmar into a dilemma of moral,political and legal siege.