Campaign allocations under probabilistic voting |
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Authors: | Deborah Fletcher Steven Slutsky |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics, Miami University, Oxford, OH, 45056, USA 2. Department of Economics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA
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Abstract: | We develop a probabilistic voting model where candidates compete by advertising in different media markets. Ads are viewed by everyone within a market and cannot be targeted to subgroups such as one candidate??s partisans. Candidates estimate the distribution of voter preference intensities in a market, and campaign ads then shift this distribution. Individuals with any intensity vote with some probability for each candidate. We derive comparative static implications of changes in a variety of factors on the advertising decisions of each candidate. Using campaign advertising data from 2002, we find these results to be consistent with actual campaign allocation behavior. |
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