对托达罗模型前提、变量及政策含义的新思考

本文在中国二元制度的背景下,建立了一个在前提、变量及政策主张诸方面不同于托达罗人口流动模型的中国农村劳动力流动模型,指出在中国特殊的制度背景下影响农民作出外出务工决策的主要因素是其流入城市的净收益现值,并对决定这一现值的各变量进行了考察.作者认为二元的经济和社会体制限制了农民的外出,降低了农民的流动和迁移意愿.最后作者就此提出了短期内促进农民工流动和长期内保证农民迁移的政策建议.

The Premise,Variable and Policy Meaning of China's Rural Surplus Labor Flow

By employing the theory of manpower investment against the background of China's dual system, this article es-tablishes a mode of China's rural labor flow, which is different from Todaro's mode of population flow in premise, variable and policy, pointing out that under China's special system background, the main factor that determines peasants' decision to work outside is the present value of net earning they make by working in the city. The paper also investigates the different variables that determine this present value. The writer deems that the dual economic and social system restricts the outgoing of the peasants and reduces their desire to flow and move. Finally, the writer offers some policy proposals in terms of promoting rural labor flow in the short run and guaranteeing peasant's migration in the long run.