脆弱性视角下气候变化与暴力冲突的传导机制探究

气候变化通过直接或间接的方式影响暴力冲突发生的可能性，但气候变化与暴力冲突之间的因果传导机制仍需要进行深入探究。作者从脆弱性的视角出发，探索从气候变化到暴力冲突的传导机制，基于复杂交织的自然因素和社会因素，通过联系的独立性和多重性，分析了气候冲突的三级传导机制，并在此基础上强调了脆弱性在气候变化与暴力冲突复合传导机制中的结构性地位。文章从生态、经济、社会和政治四个方面对脆弱性进行阐述，并分析了其在气候冲突传导机制中的作用。气候变化是暴力冲突的一种外源性触发器，脆弱性作为社会内生性因素在气候冲突风险中发挥一种屏障作用。脆弱性升高将会造成国家对暴力冲突风险的屏障作用减弱，导致气候冲突风险显著上升。

Probing into the Transmission Mechanism of Climate Change and Violent Conflict from the Perspective of Vulnerability

Climate change affects the possibility of violent conflict through direct or indirect ways, thus the causal transmission mechanism between climate change and violent conflict needs to be further explored. This paper tends to probe into the transmission mechanism between climate change and violent conflict from the perspective of vulnerability. Considering the complex and interwoven natural and social factors, as well as the independence and multiplicity of the links, the paper describes a three-level climate-conflict transmission mechanism and emphasizes the structural position of vulnerability in the composite transmission mechanism between climate change and violent conflict. Vulnerability is elaborated in this paper from such four aspects as ecology, economy, society and politics and its important role in the climate-conflict transmission mechanism is also fully analyzed. Climate change is an exogenous trigger of violent conflict, and vulnerability, as an endogenous social factor, serves as a protective screen against climate-conflict risks. Increased vulnerability will weaken the barrier function of the country against risks of violent conflict and give rise to a significant increase in climate-conflict risks.