利率与失业率关系再认识

利息率作为一个政策工具要通过一系列传导机制对就业施加影响,因而其结果往往是不确定的,降低利率是否有利于减少失业要视具体情况而定。一般来说,如果一个国家的产业结构是以资本和技术密集型为主,而且这个国家的失业类型主要是周期性失业,则利率降低的收入效应会大于替代效应,从而有利于增加就业。我国现阶段的情况与此相反。当前我国应当适度地调高利率,从而保持相对低廉的劳动力价格,促进劳动力资源的充分利用。

Re-understanding of Relationship between Interest Rate and Unemployment Rate

As a policy vehicle, interest rate exerts influence over employment throught a series of conduct mechanism; therefore, its results have always been indefinite, and it all depends whether the lowering of interest rate does good in reducing unemployment. Generally speaking, if capital and technology intensity plays a dominant role in a country's industrial structure, and unemployment in this country is mainly periodical, when interest rate is lowered, income effect is greater than substitution effect, which helps increase employment. The situations in China at present are just the opposite. China should elevate interest rate so as to maintain the relatively low labor force price, so that the labor force resources can be taken full advantage of.