新加坡汇率与贸易收支关系的协整分析

自从70年代以来,新加坡出现了汇率不断升值和贸易收支顺差不断增加的并存局面,这与传统的“J”曲线效应理论相矛盾,形成了所谓的“新加坡贸易收支之谜”。由于汇率和贸易收支常常是非平稳时间序列,传统弹性实证分析中常用的古典计量方法就很难得到无偏有效估计量。本文采用非平稳时间序列的协整计量方法直接估算了新加坡汇率和贸易收支之间的关系,发现产生“新加坡贸易收支之谜”的原因在于:新加坡有着较高的美国需求弹性和较低的国内需求弹性,从而使得新加坡货币在不断升值的情况下还可以保持贸易收支顺差。导致这一情况出现的深层原因,是新加坡产业结构的转换和升级导致出口商品结构的优化。

Cointegration on the Puzzle of Singapore''''s Trade Balance

Despite of the appreciation of the Singapore dollar, export growth in aggregate has still been rising since 1970. We call this phenomenon 'the puzzle of Singapore's trade balance', which is in contradiction with the J-curve effect Because the exchange rate and itrade balance are generally nonstationary, classic econometric methods used in the empirical study have hardly got an unbiased and efficient estimator. This paper directly analyses the relationship between the exchange rate and trade balance of Singapore by using the cointegration in the nonstationary time series. We found that the reasons of trade surplus during the appreciation of the exchange rate were the relatively high American's demand elasticity and relatively low domestic demand elasticity in Singapore. The fundamental causation was the upgrade and transition of industry structure resulting in the optimization of the structure of merchandise exports in Singapore.