Conclusion: agency,context and emergent post-uprising regimes |
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Authors: | Raymond Hinnebusch |
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Affiliation: | 1. School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, St. Andrews, UKrh10@st-andrews.ac.uk |
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Abstract: | This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects. |
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Keywords: | Arab uprisings agency political economy political culture post-uprising governance failed states Islamists social movements military workers movements Syria Egypt Tunisia |
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