Salient factor score and releasee behavior: Three validation samples

This paper provides an opportunity to observe the application of an actuarial device, used by the United States Parole Commission as an aid in parole selection, to three separate validation samples—each exceeding 1000 cases. Follow-up data for this study were provided through the cooperation of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. In addition, evidence is presented which may shed light on the conflict in the literature regarding whether or not the rate of unfavorable outcome of released prisoners at risk actually declines substantially after the first year (i.e., whether or not the first year after release is really the most critical).Adapted from Report Fifteen, United States Parole Commission Research Unit, August 1977.