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The Impact of Fiscal Illusion on Housing Values: An Australian Test of the Debt Illusion Hypothesis
Authors:Brian E Dollery  Andrew C Worthington
Abstract:The debt illusion hypothesis holds that taxpayers may underestimate the present discounted value of future tax liabilities under debt finance. The empirical question arises as to whether debt illusion at the local government level can affect housing values. This proposition is evaluated by investigating whether local fiscal variables are fully capitalized into housing values by means of a pooled time-series, cross-sectional analysis of twenty-seven metropolitan municipalities in Sydney, Australia, for the period 1989 to 1991. The results indicate that municipal debt is under-capitalized into housing values and, accordingly, suggests that local government expenditure may be systematically biased upwards.
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