Operational social systems modeling: Pitfalls and prospectives

As myriad social problems press for attention and resolution, a variety of individuals have joined the search for means to understand and manage those problems. An important component of the search is the use of analytic methods and models, which are being relied on to a large and unprecedented extent. Social systems modeling appears to have a future of both high potential and growth. However, as is the case with many emerging and evolving fields, operational or applied social modeling has had its share of failures and only limited successes, and it will undoubtedly continue to do so. This essay concentrates on what appear to be several of the key, unresolved problems impeding full and productive use of these methods and techniques. It is both a summary assessment of experiences to date and a blueprint for work yet to be done.An earlier version of this essay was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Washington, D.C.; on February 15, 1978.