On urban homicide: A statistical analysis

A statistical analysis is made of homicide rates in the 50 largest American cities for four different years. It is shown that differences in recent murder growth among the cities can largely be explained as typical random fluctuations about a common trend. It is also found that the changing age profile of the American people explains no more than ten percent of the increase in homicide since 1964. Several mathematical models for future homicide growth are proposed from the analysis, and under each the probability of death by murder and corresponding drop in life expectancy are estimated for individuals born now in each of the 50 cities.