On normative futures research

This paper is less a state-of-the-art discussion of normative futures research than a critique of current thinking about futures research in general. It argues strongly for an integration of diverse approaches to identification of alternative futures (as contrasted with reliance on a single approach, however sophisticated), because of the difficult problem of hidden bias. Applying this principle to the present situation of industrialized society, it identifies a set of dilemmas which appear unresolvable except through a thoroughgoing transformation of culture and institutions. Furthermore, it suggests some evidence that we may indeed be witnessing the beginning stages of a revolutionary transformation. The paper concludes with a suggestion of some of the characteristics futures research would have to have if it is to illuminate us with regard to whether such a transformation is taking place, and with regard to the choices it poses.Presented at the Conference on Research Needs in Futures Research, January 10–11, 1974, conducted by The Futures Group under National Science Foundation Grant GI-37178; to be published in Wayne I. Boucher (ed.), The Study of the Future: An Agenda for Research.