区域全面经济伙伴关系协定对台湾的经济影响--基于价值链分析和GTAP政策模拟

2020年11月,区域全面经济伙伴关系协定(RCEP)正式签署,全球最大的自由贸易区应运而生。本文从传统贸易与价值链出发,阐述台湾与RCEP成员经贸关系和价值链联系,分析RCEP签署对台湾经济和贸易的影响,利用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税削减对台湾岛内经济与产业的影响。结果显示:RCEP建立将导致台湾对外贸易与投资的转移,贸易条件恶化,从而对岛内各产业产出、经济增长、消费者福利带来负面冲击。同时,台湾通过后向联系参与全球价值链的低端产业将面临被替代的风险。

The Economic Impact of“Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement”on Taiwan:Base on Value Chain Analysis and GTAP Policy Simulation

In November 2020,the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement(RCEP)was formally signed,the world's largest free trade zone came into being.Starting from the traditional trade and value chain,this paper expounds the economic and trade relations and value chain links between Taiwan and RCEP countries,analyzing the impact of RCEP signing on Taiwan's economy and trade.Meanwhile,this paper also uses GTAP model to simulate the impact of RCEP tariff reductions on Taiwan economy and industry.The findings show that the establishment of RCEP will lead to the transfer of Taiwan foreign trade and investment and the deterioration of terms of trade,which will have a negative impact on the industrial output,economic growth,and consumer welfare of the island.At the same time,Taiwan low-end industries participating in global value chains through backward linkages will be replaced.