| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of business cycle fluctuations on street crime in the conceptual framework of Cantor and Land's(1985) seminal work distinguishing between opportunity and motivation effects. The analysis contributes to the literature three ways. First, we use cross‐section/time series data, which has several important advantages over simple time‐series or cross‐section data of previous studies. Second, it introduces a new and broader measure of business cycle conditions, one that more faithfully captures the logic of Cantor and Land's framework than previous measures do. Third, it focuses on the large decline in street crime of the 1990s, a central issue facing criminologists. Statistical models indicate that the strong economy of the 1990s reduced all four index property crimes and robbery by reducing criminal motivation. Business cycle growth produced no significant opportunity effect for any of the crimes studied. |
