中国农业补贴政策变动趋势及其影响分析

中国农业补贴政策需要根据未来国内需要和世界贸易组织要求适当调整,本文试图通过对中国农业补贴政策的分析,得到对政策变动趋势的判断并分析其经济影响.本研究使用全球贸易一般均衡模型(GTAP)及其全球贸易和投入产出数据库,通过设计黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持总量增减的变化,设定不同政策方案,模拟中国农业补贴政策可能的变化,讨论在黄箱政策补贴受限情形下,绿箱政策支持对黄箱政策补贴的替代作用和可行性,分析补贴增减给中国和世界主要农业生产区域农业生产和农产品贸易造成的影响.研究结果表明,增加中国农业黄箱政策补贴和绿箱政策支持会减少中国整体福利,但会促进农业生产和进出口贸易;当前应当继续稳定实施黄箱政策补贴,并逐步把农业国内支持政策由黄箱过渡到绿箱.对农业补贴政策变动趋势及影响的研究,将为中国政府进行农业补贴相关政策的制定提供参考.

Trends and Economic Impacts of Agricultural Subsidies in China

The objective of this paper is to investigate recent agricultural subsidy policy change and its economic impacts in China.The research analyzes the possible agricultural subsidy policy change in the future using GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project) model.GTAP could be used to analyze the economic influence of agricultural subsidy policy change in China to both China and other important agricultural products exporting countries.Two different policy changes are simulated in the research,which based on the increasing or decreasing of China Amber box policies and Green box policies.In view of the previous article paid more attention to the amber box subsidies,this paper focus on the effect of increasing Green box policies and decreasing the Amber box policies.The simulation results shows that although further increasing of China agricultural subsidy would decrease welfare in China,those measures would stimulate agricultural production,imports and exports.Furthermore,with the development of the China economy and agriculture,the Amber box policies should be transformed into the Green Box measures gradually.The key limitation of the study is that it focuses solely on simulation about China’s subsidies,with very little discussion about how to make the subsidies more efficient and practicable due to data limitation.Future survey may tackle the limitation.While by the simulation analysis,the research can render a possible tool for the government to assess the impact of agricultural subsidies policy change.Hopefully the possible new analysis tool can benefit the policy maker to learn more before issuing a new subsidies policy.Article Type: Research paper