“一带一路”国家经济联动效应研究

文章基于贸易传导渠道，对“一带一路”沿线国家经济联动效应进行研究，同时也进行分时段子样本分析。研究发现：双边贸易强度并没有显著促进“一带一路”国家间的经济联动。宏观经济政策方面，财政政策的促进作用最为显著，外汇储备、货币政策及区域自由贸易协定等影响有限。“一带一路”国家应积极构建多元化的贸易合作体系，提高宏观经济政策透明度，实现经济共同繁荣。

Economic Co-movement Effects of Macroeconomic Policies among Countries of “One Belt One Road”

Using the data covering participating countries of “One Belt One Road”, this paper explores the macroeconomic movement effects based on the channel of international trade. It also analyzes subsamples of periods. This research indicates that bilateral trade intensity does not significantly promote the economic coupling among “One Belt One Road” countries. Fiscal policy has a great impact on the economic coupling and the effects of foreign reserve, monetary policy and regional free trade agreement are limited. Take the strategy of “One Belt One Road” as an opportunity, the governments of participating countries of “One Belt One Road” should strengthen their trade cooperation and improve the transparency of macroeconomic policies to achieve the economic prosperity.