The Third and Fatal Shock: How Pandemic Killed the Millennial Paradigm

This millennium began with widespread acceptance of a governing paradigm emphasizing small government, free markets, and open borders. Three crises—the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic—forced American policy makers to diverge from this paradigm. At the time, these divergences were described as temporary departures from normalcy. In retrospect, it would be more accurate to regard the millennial paradigm itself as the abnormality: a model of governance designed for rare moments of calm. In the last two decades, a different paradigm has emerged. American government has become the ultimate bearer of societal risks. Repeatedly, it has adopted extraordinary measures to protect public safety and the economy. However, the American state lacks the capacity to anticipate and manage these massive risks competently. New capabilities are required, along with a new mentality about governing. Domestic politics will complicate the task of building these capabilities.