基于社会控制论的非常态时期犯罪预测模型的建立

重大公共卫生事件的突发使各类犯罪现象出现新特点和新趋势,不仅表现在犯罪类型结构的骤变,更体现在犯罪数量较以往的显著差异上。针对此次疫情,及时总结归纳并建立基于突发事件社会环境下的犯罪预测模型成为警务情报部门工作研究的重点。以犯罪预防学中的“犯罪三角”理论范式为基础,根据此次突发公共卫生事件中各类犯罪呈现出的特点,综合评估预测犯罪管理者、犯罪监管者、犯罪操训者三类犯罪防控主体在诸多疫情防控措施作用下的犯罪防控效能。建立基于突发事件的犯罪防控效能评估预测模型,可在一定程度上弥补传统犯罪预测中因突发事件等特定环境变化带来的预测盲区,还可通过预测结果,为各类疫情防控措施提供有力保障。

The Establishment of An Evaluation and Prediction Model for Crime Prevention and Control Effectiveness Based on Social Cybernet

The emergence of major public health events has brought about new characteristics and new trends of all kinds of crimes,which are not only reflected in the sudden changes in the structure of crime types,but also the significant differences in the number of crimes compared with the previous ones.In response to the epidemic,it has become the focus of the police intelligence department to timely summarize and establish a crime prevention and control effectiveness predictionmodel based on the social environment of public health emergencies.Based on the theoretical paradigm of“crime triangle”in crime prevention,and according to the characteristics of various types of crimes in public health emergencies,a comprehensive assessment is made under the effect of various epidemic prevention and control measures to predict the crime prevention and control effectiveness of three crime prevention and control subjects named crime managers,crime supervisors and crime trainers.The establishment of a crime prevention and control effectiveness evaluation and prediction model based on public health emergencies can,to a certain extent,make up for the prediction blindness caused by specific environmental changes,such as public health emergencies in the traditional crime prediction,and provide a strong guarantee for all kinds of epidemic prevention and control measures through the realization of the prediction purpose.