Pretty faces,marginal races: Predicting election outcomes using trait assessments of British parliamentary candidates |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, USA;2. School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham, United Kingdom;1. Laboratoire Barla, 22, avenue Robert-Soleau, 06600 Antibes, France;2. X-Pertise Consulting, 84, route de Saverne, 67205 Oberhausbergen, France;1. Department of Chemical and Process Engineering, University of Strathclyde, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, UK;2. School of Chemistry, Bedson Building, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 7RU, UK;1. The James Buchanan Brady Urological Institute, and Department of Urology, The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD;2. Department of Pathology, The Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD;3. From the Cardiovascular Research Center/Thrombosis Research Center, Department of Pharmacology, Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19140,;4. the Department of Cardiology, Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, China,;5. the Department of Cardiology, Jiangxi Provincial People''s Hospital, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330006, China,;6. the Department of Medicine, Griffin Hospital, Derby, Connecticut 06418, and;1. Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA;2. Department of Biochemistry, University of Cambridge, Tennis Court Road, Cambridge CB2 1GA, UK |
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| Abstract: | The conventional wisdom on Western European politics leads us to believe that all the “action” lies with parties, because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters' attention to parties' policies and images. Though British elections take place under a single member district plurality system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralised and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. Despite the strong ties between British candidates and their parties, we demonstrate that perceptions of candidates' personal attributes can be used to predict general election outcomes. Using a computer-based survey where subjects are asked to evaluate real British candidates using only rapidly determined first impressions of facial images, we successfully predict outcomes from the 2010 general election. Moreover, we find that perceptions of candidates' relative attractiveness are particularly useful for predicting outcomes in marginal constituencies. |
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| Keywords: | British elections Candidate traits Electoral competition |
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