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Representation and district magnitude in plurality systems |
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| Affiliation: | 1. State Key Lab of Computer Science, Institute of Software, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;2. School of Mathematics, Statistics and Operations Research, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand;3. Department of Mathematics, Columbia House, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom;1. The Open University, Department of Social Sciences, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire, United Kingdom;2. The London School of Economics, Department of Government, United Kingdom;1. Department of Health Sciences, University of York, UK;2. Institute of Child Health, University College London, UK;3. Institute of Education, University of London, UK;4. NatCen, National Centre for Social Research, UK |
| Abstract: | Despite the widely accepted theoretical prediction that high district magnitudes should yield less proportional results in plurality systems, empirical evidence is surprisingly mixed. We argue that these mixed results are ultimately due to a lack of clarity about the counterfactual being considered. We use a simple model to show that an increase in district magnitude reduces expected proportionality in a plurality system only if it is accompanied by a reduction in the number of districts. This conditional prediction helps to explain the diversity of existing findings and is consistent with our own analysis of both U.S. congressional delegations and local councils in Britain. |
| Keywords: | Electoral systems District magnitude Plurality Proportionality US UK |
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