To vote or to abstain? An experimental test of rational calculus in first past the post and PR elections |
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| Institution: | 1. Université de Montréal, Département de Science Politique, C.P. 6128, Succursale Centre-ville. H3C 3J7 Montréal, QC, Canada;2. Université Libre de Bruxelles, Belgium;3. Toulouse School of Economics & CNRS, France;4. Paris School of Economics & CNRS, France;5. University of Toronto, Canada;1. Victoria University of Wellington, Political Science and International Relations Programme, Wellington 6140, New Zealand;2. Utrecht University, School of Governance, The Netherlands;1. Lander University, 320 Stanley Avenue, Greenwood, SC 29649-2099, USA;2. Niehoff Urban Design Studio, USA;3. University of Cincinnati, 401-I Braunstein Hall, Cincinnati, OH 45221, USA |
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| Abstract: | We test the rational choice model of turnout in the lab. We performed laboratory experiments in which participants had to decide whether to vote or not in a number of first past the post and proportional representation elections. We test the predictions of rational choice theory from three different angles:(i) First, we compare aggregate turnout with the Nash equilibrium predictions.(ii) Second, we compare individual decisions with those derived from a rational calculus and count the number of decisions which are consistent with the rational recommendation, and.(iii) Third, we determine, still at the individual level, whether, at the margin, people are more likely to vote as the expected payoff increases.The overwhelming thrust of the evidence is inconsistent with the rational calculus paradigm. |
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| Keywords: | Turnout Vote Abstention Election Laboratory experiment |
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