With a little help from my neighbours: A spatial analysis of the impact of local campaigns at the 2010 British general election |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Politics, Languages and International Relations, University of Bath, 1 West North, Bath BA2 7AY, UK;2. Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of the West of England, Frenchay Campus, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, UK;3. Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK;4. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK;5. Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK;1. Institute of Social Medicine, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;2. Estácio de Sá University, Campos dos Goytacazes, Brazil;3. McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada;4. Institute of Psychology, State University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil;1. School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK;2. National University of Singapore, 10 Kent Ridge Crescent, Singapore 119260, Singapore;1. Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame, United States;2. United States Naval Academy, United States;1. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), 1250 16th St. Suite 2100, Santa Monica CA 90404, United States;2. Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Southern California (USC), 1975 Zonal Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90033, United States |
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| Abstract: | This article examines the electoral impact of spillover effects in local campaigns in Britain. For the first time, this is applied to the long as well as the short campaign. Using spatial econometric modelling on constituency data from the 2010 general election, there is clear empirical evidence that, in both campaign periods, the more a party spends on campaigning in constituencies adjacent to constituency i, the more votes it gets in constituency i. Of the three major political parties, the Liberal Democrats obtained the greatest electoral payoff. Future empirical analyses of voting at the constituency scale must, therefore, explicitly take account of spatial heterogeneity in order to correctly gauge the magnitude and significance of factors that affect parties' parliamentary performance. |
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| Keywords: | Local campaigning Spillover effects General elections Spatial modelling |
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