政府购买冲击与商业周期——一个基于Keynes波动理论与真实商业周期理论的比较分析

基于IS-LM模型的传统凯恩斯波动理论主要从需求的角度用乘数理论分析政府购买冲击对宏观经济变量的静态影响;基本的真实商业周期理论则主要从供给的角度用财富效应和劳动力跨期替代理论分析政府购买冲击对消费、劳动投入、总产出等宏观经济变量的动态效应。不同的动态随机一般均衡模型得出的校准结论常常大相径庭。Keynes波动理论和真实商业周期理论对政府购买的消费效应持有截然不同的观点。

Government Purchase Shocks and Business Cycles: parative Analysis Between Keynesian Fluctuation Theory and Real Business Cycle T

Based on IS-LM model,traditional Keynesian fluctuation theory focuses on static effects of govern- ment purchase shocks on aggregate demand and other macro variables in terms of multiplier.Benchmark Real Busi- ness Cycle theories,however,analyze the dynamic effects of government purchase shocks on consumption,labor force,output level from an aspect of supply side,wealth effects and intertemporal substitution of labor force.Cali- brated predicts made by different dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models vary greatly.The focus of this paper is on the different consumption effects of government purchase suggested by the two theories.