Deterrence and the base rate fallacy: An examination of perceived certainty

This research tests the assumption of deterrence theory that a strong positive relationship exists between the objective properties of punishment certainty and individuals' perceptions of these properties. This is accomplished through the experimental manipulation of information about objective certainty provided to a sample of university students. Results indicate that individuals use such information moderately in making their own estimates of certainty. Little evidence in support of a “base rate fallacy” is found; subjects generally did not ignore objective information in favor of subjective information when estimating personal certainty. Tests of the interactions between individual characteristics and information provided on objective certainty produced few significant results. The implications of the results, particularly that individuals adhered moderately to known objective probabilities in estimating personal certainty, are discussed.