What is the Probability that This Blood Came from That Person? A Meaningful Question? |
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| Authors: | I W Evett |
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| Affiliation: | 1. University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Center for Orthopedic and Trauma Surgery, Kerpener Str. 62, 50937 Cologne, Germany;2. Department of Anatomy I, University of Cologne, Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Cologne, Germany;3. Praxis MKG Augsburg Süd, Inninger Str. 2, 86179 Augsburg, Germany;4. Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Leipzig University, Liebigstraße 12, 04103 Leipzig, Germany;1. APHM, CHU Timone, Service de Médecine Légale et Droit de la Santé, 13385 Cedex 5 Marseille, France;2. Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, EFS, ADES UMR 7268, 13916 Marseille, France;3. Aix-Marseille Université, IFSTTAR, LBA UMR_T 24, 13916 Marseille, France;1. Netherlands Forensic Institute, PO Box 24044, 2490 AA The Hague, The Netherlands;2. Leiden University, Institute for Criminal Law and Criminology, PO Box 9520, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;3. Environmental Science & Research Ltd., Private Bag 92021, Auckland 1142, New Zealand |
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| Abstract: | The paper discusses, on the basis of Bayesian inference, the type of question which the forensic scientist should attempt to answer in the context of the investigation of a crime. By means of simple examples it is argued that, as far as the scientist is concerned, the first question in the title is not, in general, meaningful. |
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