How much did droughts matter? Linking rainfall and GDP growth in Zimbabwe

Since 2000, Zimbabwe's government, as well as other internationalaid organizations, have repeatedly blamed the country's sharpeconomic downturn on persistent and severe droughts. Indeed,past research has shown strong links between rainfall and maizeyields in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that the lack of rainfallis an attractive culprit for the recent collapse of Zimbabwe'sagriculture-based economy. This article probes this hypothesisfurther, by examining primary data from 38 countrywide rainfallstations during the 1960–1961/2002–2003 time-frame,in order to put the recent economic decline in better historicalcontext. The article finds little evidence that Zimbabwe's recenteconomic difficulties were caused by either low or erratic rainfall,suggesting that the recent collapse of the economy is far morelikely a result of government mismanagement.