现实汇率失调影响经济均衡的效应分析

经济运行中客观存在的现实汇率偏离均衡汇率水平造成的汇率失调对宏观经济会产生重要影响。汇率高估会导致贸易收支恶化,影响资本市场稳定,引发货币危机和债务危机,对内则损害国内产业竞争力,影响资本积累,造成税收损失,不利于就业和稳定。汇率低估虽然能鼓励出口和促进外汇储备的增长,但容易带来贸易摩擦,影响国际贸易关系,对内影响资源配置效率,不利于扩大内需和国内产业结构的调整升级,并有引发和加剧通货膨胀的可能。

Analysis on Maladjustment of Actual Exchange Rate''''s Effects on Economic Balance

The maladjustment of exchange rate,caused by departure from balanced exchange rate existing in the actual economy,will exert great effects on micro-economy.Overestimation of exchange rate will lead to deterioration of trade income and expenses,which influences the stabilization of capital markets and causes current crisis and debt crisis.Consequently,it is harmful to the competition of domestic industry,employment,and social stabilization.Likewise,underestimation,although it may encourage export and increase foreign exchange reserve,will bring trade frictions easily,which affects the rate of resource distribution,harms expanding domestic demand and structural upgrading of domestic industry,and possibly causes and aggravates inflation.