新出口退税政策对中国出口贸易方式的影响——事件分析法的一个新应用

2004年1～5月份,在新出口退税政策实施的背景下,中国一般贸易出口出现增速回落及比重下降。因此,出口退税新政策对中国出口贸易方式构成的影响程度成为了学术界、政府和企业关注的焦点。利用事件分析法,分别从总量效应和结构效应两个方面对此问题进行研究。实证结果表明:在总量上,一般贸易出口额与进料加工贸易出口额在新政策出台后均出现了异常增长现象,新政策的实施使增速明显下降,但降势已减弱并趋稳,短期内的平均影响并不显著;在结构上,结构效应尚未显现。然而,随着新政策的进一步实施,长期影响还有待继续深入研究,以便及时掌握其可能对贸易方式构成造成的异常波动。

The Impact of New Export Tax Rebate Policy on China''''s Export Trading Forms--A New Application of Event-Study Analysis

China ' s new export tax rebate policy came into force from the very beginning of2004.Coupled with the decreased proportion from January to May,2004,the growth rate of China ' s general trade exports has slowed down.Against this backdrop,the impact of the tax rebate on export trading forms is a very interesting and important topic for study.In this paper,an event-study analysis is made on this topic from both sides of volume and structure.Our empirical results include:(1)The significance of average impact of the new policy on the volume has not very clearly appeared in the short time;(2)After the promulgation of the new policy,there existed an abnormal rising not only for general trade exports but also for exports through processing with im - ported materials.But the growth has apparently slowed down and tended to be stable with the implementation of the policy in2004;(3)There hasn ' t exhibited any structure implication.However,with further implementa - tion,the long-term influence of the policy should be studied.