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A Metric Comparison of Predictive Hot Spot Techniques and RTM
Authors:Grant Drawve
Institution:1. grdrawve@ualr.edu
Abstract:There are numerous hot spot mapping techniques that can be used in research and in practice for predicting future crime locations. Due to differences in the varying techniques, metrics were developed to compare the accuracy and precision of these techniques. The predictive accuracy index (PAI) and recapture rate index (RRI) were used to assess six different hot spot techniques. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Crime, Nearest Neighbor Hierarchical, Kernel Density Estimation, and Risk Terrain Modeling were the general techniques compared in relation to their PAI and RRI values for short-term and long-term prediction of robberies. The results of the study were discussed with an emphasis on the utility of using multiple techniques jointly for analysis.
Keywords:hot spots  crime prediction  crime analysis  Predictive Accuracy Index  Recapture Rate Index
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