测量国债规模的模型阐释——基于国债功能的变迁

采用经济学规范研究方法,沿袭了模型阐释国债规模测量的主流研究路径--当前价值的借款约束模型和国债自然规模模型,从宏观和微观、供给与需求的角度,剖析了决定一国国债规模的关键要素.关注了不同模型下的均衡结果,获得了国债功能变迁下测量国债规模的组合模型.研究表明,在制度变迁等外部因素影响下,国债功能有显著的变化.国债功能的变迁是国债规模波动的主要原因之一.理论上,现今的国债规模测量存在短期均衡和长期均衡交替呈现的基本特征.而在动态分析框架下,国债规模的测量受到宏观和微观因素的共同影响.研究对理论模型结果进行了操作性解释,为实证研究搭建了必要的实施框架.研究认为,进一步地探寻测量国债规模组合模型的微观基础,是将来研究的主要方向.

On the Scale of Public Debt:the Measurement Model in System Transition

The scale of public debt can be considered as a result of political development,economic growth and social progress. However, economic theorists have already begun to query the so-called international criteria of public debt. This paper applies the method of economic theoretical research and follows the model of Present-Value Borrowing Constraint and the model of Natural Limited Debt as classical models. On the references of supply and demand and the perspectives of system transition in macroeconomics a...