民族主义、国内政治权力结构变迁与南海争端国对华对冲差异

在国际体系变迁的背景下,东南亚三个主要的南海争端国越南、菲律宾和马来西亚普遍采用对华对冲战略以应对中国崛起带来的不确定性。但是,三国的对华对冲差异何以存在仍是个尚需进一步澄清的理论问题。在政治结构具有较高自主性的情况下,民族主义诉求强度以及国内政治权力结构变迁是影响三国对华对冲差异的主要因素,导致三国分别实施了对抗、均衡与合作三种不同类型的对冲。二者通过执政者的合法化战略影响对冲的实际演化,弱民族主义诉求推动争端国采取合作型对华对冲,但随着民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于集中化,争端国将采取均衡型对冲;在民族主义诉求增强且政治权力结构趋于分散化的情况下,争端国将采取对抗型对冲。国内政治权力结构的未来演变可能导致南海争端国实施更具对抗性的对华对冲战略,推动南海局势发生于中国不利的变化。

Nationalism,Changes in Domestic Political Power Structure and Differences in Hedging between China and South China Sea Dispute Countries

Against the backdrop of the changing international system,the three main South China Sea dispute countries in Southeast Asia Vietnam,the Philippines and Malaysia have all responded to uncertainties generated by China’s rise by hedging against China.While so,the differences in approach taken by these three states raise important questions for students of political theory.Where political structures provide high levels of autonomy,the strength of nationalistic tendencies and changes in domestic political power structures are the primary factors driving these three states to adopt one of three different approaches to hedging against China:confrontation,cooperation,or equilibrium.In practice,these two factors influence the approach a state takes to hedging through the strategy that incumbent governments use to build legitimacy.In the case that levels of nationalistic sentiment are low,claimant states will pursue cooperation with China as a means of hedging;as nationalism rises in a state,and political power structures become more centralized,and claimant states tend towards equilibrium strategies;when nationalistic sentiment is high and political power structures remain decentralized,claimant states tend towards confrontational approaches.Future changes in domestic political power structures may result in claimant states adopting confrontational policies vis-à-vis their needs to hedge against China,thereby resulting in scenarios in the South China sides that are not in China’s interests.