Explaining divergent responses to ethnic exclusion: evidence from two paired comparisons |
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| Authors: | Stefan Lindemann |
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| Institution: | 1. Dr Stefan Lindemann is a fellow at KfW Development Bank and an associate research fellow at the GIGA Institute of African Affairs. His most recent publication is ‘The Clash of Institutions: Traditional Authority, Conflict and the Failure of Hybridity in Buganda’. Commonwealth &2. Comparative Politics 51(1), 2013, 3–26 (with Tom Goodfellow). |
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| Abstract: | This article asks why ethnic exclusion from executive-level state power leads to armed conflict in some cases but not in others. To answer this question the author develops a nine-factor model of ethnic conflict, which is used to investigate the diverging conflict trajectories of two pairs of ‘most similar’ ethnic groups. These include the Malinke in Guinea and Northerners in Côte d'Ivoire on the one hand, and Kurds in Syria and Turkey on the other. It is shown that varying responses to ethnic exclusion can mainly be traced back to three factors, which have so far been neglected in the ethnic conflict literature: the selectivity of state violence, the territorial reach of the state and the availability of cross-border sanctuaries. Ethnic rebellion occurs where weak territorial control and indiscriminate repression combine with external sanctuary. Conversely, violent escalation is avoided in a context of strong territorial control, selective repression and no external sanctuary. |
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