Hunting where the ducks are: activating support for Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican primary |
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| Authors: | John Sides Lynn Vavreck |
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| Institution: | 1. Political Science Departments, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA;2. Political Science Departments, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTDonald Trump’s victory in the 2016 Republican primary defied the predictions of many politicians, pundits, and political scientists. Yet, while Trump’s nomination was hard to predict, it is not difficult to explain. We show that Trump’s campaign message succeeded by activating longstanding, but often unappreciated, sentiments among Republican voters about immigration and economic entitlements. In particular, his support was concentrated among Republican voters with hawkish views on immigration and relatively liberal views on economic policy. Moreover, these views preceded support for Trump, rather than the other way around. Drawing on an original panel survey, we show that attitudes about immigration and economic entitlements measured in 2011 strongly predicted support for Trump in 2016. Although Trump’s coalition struck many observers as odd, it was predicated on a set of attitudes that is not unusual among Republican voters. He simply hunted where the ducks are. |
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