THE HUMAN EQUATION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND WARNINGS

For natural disasters such as hurricanes and tornados, prediction systems and public warning programs have been operational for many years. Earthquake prediction, however, is only an emerging technology. Given the potential for catastrophe in a large earthquake and the great difficulty in specifying time, location and magnitude of impact, certain substantial policy problems emerge; hence, the maximum benefit of scientific earthquake predictions is realized. Policy planners must concentrate on public education and the creation of organizational linkages which would comprise the public warning information system (i.e., how and what is said, and monitoring public response to any warning). Most important is that the issue of prediction-warning be addressed now since planning can produce benefits even if no predictions are issued.