Putting risk factors in their place: an evolutionary-developmental approach to understanding risk

ABSTRACT

The assessment of criminal risk plays a prominent role in the criminal justice systems of many different countries and risk assessment is employed in a number of different domains. Given the importance of risk assessment tools in forensic contexts, and the amount of research devoted to evaluating their accuracy in predicting re-offending, it might be expected that risk assessment tools are grounded in our best theoretical understanding of the causal processes that give rise to criminal actions. However, it is not at all clear that this is the case. In this article, I will argue that one important area of neglect is the failure to fully engage with the literature in developmental and life-course criminology which also has directed an enormous amount of effort in to identifying risk factors for offending. At the heart of this neglect, I will claim, is the failure to fully recognise the key distinction between predicting offending and predicting re-offending. I will further argue that an evolutionary developmental perspective provides the theoretical resources to provide fully explanatory accounts of offending and re-offending, and in which risk factors can be appropriately located. I conclude by briefly considering some implications for theory, research, and practice.