Fragmented Sovereignty: Why Sendero Luminoso Consolidated in Some Regions of Peru but Not in Others

Why do insurgents control some regions of a country but not others? Four explanations are considered: relative deprivation, availability of rebel financing, counterinsurgent capabilities, and political pluralism. These are tested against the insurgency of Sendero Luminoso in four Peruvian regions: the Upper Huallaga, the Central Huallaga, Ayacucho, and Puno. The analysis suggests three conclusions. First, rebels are unlikely to consolidate in areas where counterinsurgent forces are strong. Second, insurgents are also unlikely to control regions where the level of political pluralism is high. Third, rebels are likely to consolidate in regions where counterinsurgent forces are weak and the level of political pluralism is low.