Climate Instability,Urbanisation and International Migration |
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Authors: | Mathilde Maurel |
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Institution: | 1. Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne UMR 8174 du Centre National de la Recherché Scientifique, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris, France;2. FERDI (Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International), Clermont-Ferrand, France |
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Abstract: | This paper focuses on climate-induced migration. We construct a simple theoretical model where, in a first step, climate shocks accelerate the transition from the traditional to the modern sector, leading rural workers to move to urban centres within national borders, while in a second step, downward pressures on wages due to the greater labour supply in cities push people to engage in international migration. To test this hypothesis, we exploit a rich panel dataset, displaying a representative picture of bilateral migration flows and climatic data across 222 countries for the period 1960–2000. Findings suggest that in the next few years the climate-induced growth rate of migrant stocks might be in a range between 8.6 per cent and 12.8 per cent, especially from developing countries, where the level of rural employment is more likely to be affected by climatic shocks. |
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