俄罗斯的外交决策:人格特质与战略文化

外交决策历来是国际政治研究的重点,其中艾利森决策理论以个人性情论和历史情景论为视角,建立了以理性为核心的决策模式,强调人格特质的重要意义。俄罗斯外交决策同样深受总统人格特质的深刻影响。这在普京总统任期尤为明显。普京时代的主旋律是俄罗斯的强国战略。在强国战略的背景下,包括普京在内的俄罗斯精英在对外政策的原则与目标上一致:保持俄罗斯在世界上作为一个不可忽视的国家的地位。普京个人经历让普京有坚定的主权观念和维护国家利益的强烈意愿。不仅如此,在强调时间性的历史情景中,外交战略文化赋予俄罗斯地缘空间与精英共识的超时空结合,"俄罗斯是独特的"这种理念总是在适宜的时间以不同的表现形式和概念体系反复出现,这是俄罗斯民族气质在总统人格特质上的映射。从人格特质与战略文化的视角研究俄罗斯的外交决策,可以看到:俄罗斯观念是俄罗斯在世界政治历史长河的冲击下反应与自主探索的结晶。

Russian Foreign Policy Making:Personality Traits and Strategic Culture

Foreign policy making has always been the focus of international political research, in which Allison's decision theory, from the perspective of personal temperament theory and historical scenario theory, established a decision-making model with rationality as the core, emphasizing the importance of personality traits. Russia's foreign policy decisions are also deeply influenced by the Russian President's personality. This is especially true during Putin's presidency. The dominant theme of the Putin’s era has been Russia's great power strategy. In the context of the great power strategy, the Russian elites, including Putin, share the same principles and objectives in their foreign policy: to maintain Russia's position as a country that cannot be ignored in the world. Putin's personal experience has given him a strong sense of sovereignty and a strong will to safeguard national interests. Moreover, in the historical scenario emphasizing timeliness, the strategic culture of diplomacy endows Russia with the transcendental combination of geographical space and elite consensus, and Russian uniqueness always appears in different forms and conceptual systems at the appropriate time, which is the reflection of Russian national temperament in presidential personality. It can be seen, from the perspective of personality traits and strategic culture, that the Russian concept is the crystallization of Russia's response and independent exploration under the chock of the long history of world politics.