中东欧与欧盟关系的现状与前景

中东欧国家自加入欧盟后,表现出越来越强的独立性,不但在一体化的方式问题上与英国一道对欧盟提出了挑战,甚至在国家基本制度问题上都对欧盟提出了质疑。相较于国力强大的英国给欧盟带来的不利影响,中东欧成员国与欧盟的矛盾一方面由于中东欧成员国实力的不足,另一方面由于有德国的调控,一直处于次要位置。在英国脱欧已成定局之后,德、法等国已开始有精力处理中东欧问题,这一矛盾开始上升,成为欧盟内部的主要矛盾。欧盟于2017年出台了"多速欧洲"方案,并且连续通过了对波、匈两国进行严厉惩戒的议案。如果照此发展,欧盟将难免陷入一种或明或暗的分裂之中。欧盟整体在军事、社会治理等方面能力的提升无法在短期内达成,因此美国以及俄罗斯仍将继续在欧洲事务中扮演重要角色。这种外部力量的存在又会进一步固化欧盟可能的分裂,反而进一步抵消欧盟在军事、社会等领域进行一体化的努力。

The Current Situation and Prospects of Relations Between Central and Eastern Europe and the EU

Central and eastern European countries have shown increasing independence after their accession to the EU. They, sided with the UK, have not only challenged the EU’s way of integration, but also questioned the EU in terms of the basic national system. However, comparing to the UK’s impact on the EU, which is a very important member state, the impact of the controversy between CEE member states and the EU on the latter is in the secondary position both due to the former’s weakening power and German control. However, when Brexit is a forgone conclusion, Germany, France and other member states are free to deal with the CEE member states’ problems, so importance of the problems began to rise and become the main contradiction within the EU. In 2017, the European Union introduced the scenarios of future integration including "multi-speed Europe" and successively passed the bill to severely punish Poland and Hungary. If things go on like this, the EU will inevitably be plunged into a kind of division, either in overt or in covert. Meanwhile the United States and Russia will continue to play the important roles in European affairs, as the improvement of the EU’s overall capability in military and social governance cannot be achieved in the short term.Such external forces will further cement the possible division of the EU and further offset the EU’s efforts in military, social and other fields.