Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications |
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| Authors: | Evelyn J Patterson Samuel H Preston |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Sociology & Crime, Law and Justice, The Pennsylvania State University, 211 Oswald Tower, University Park, PA 16802–6207, USA;(2) Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA |
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| Abstract: | This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range
of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have
been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the
inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length
of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model
populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of
entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect
measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust
for the growth rate of the prison population.
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| Keywords: | Measurement Prison population Time served Life table |
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