MEASURING THE WAR ON DRUGS: A CYBERNETIC MODEL FOR ANALYZING THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN DRUG SEVERITY, DRUG SALIENCE AND DRUG FUNDING

This study explores the rationality of drug policy. It proposes a cybernetic relationship between actual drug severity, public salience of the drug problem, and anti‐drug funding. The study hypothesizes that increases in the severity of the drug problem will cause an increase in the salience of the drug issue. Increased salience in turn leads to political pressure and increased drug funding. As funding increases, anti‐drug programs become more robust and effective and drug severity decreases. When severity decreases, salience should in turn decrease. And so on. To test the cybernetic model, the study correlates trends of drug data from 1970 through 1996. It finds significant correlation between drug severity, measured by hospital emergency room drug episodes, and drug salience, measured by media coverage of drug events. The study finds correlations of drug funding and severity to be ambiguous, and finds no correlation between drug funding and drug salience. The findings do not support the overall hypothesis of a rational, cybernetic process but offer insights on drug policy dynamics.