第三产业发展带动我国就业增长的实证分析

本文借助就业弹性、产业偏离度、不同产业的相对劳动生产率等指标,对改革开放以来我国劳动力向第三产业转移的现状及对就业的影响进行了国际比较和实证分析.得出如下结论:(1)1990年代以来,我国第一产业己成为劳动力净流出的部门,第二产业吸纳劳动力的能力下降,第三产业的就业GDP弹性、对就业增长的贡献份额均高于第一、第二产业,第三产业已成为吸纳劳动力就业的主要产业.(2)我国的产业结构与就业结构具有非一致性的特点,主要表现为:就业结构滞后于产业结构的发展;第二产业比重过大,第三产业发展速度趋缓,发展水平不高;劳动力向第三产业转移的速度缓慢,第三产业就业比重明显偏低.(3)第三产业中传统的商贸餐饮业、房地产业及新兴的服务业将成为吸纳我国劳动力就业的主要行业.

Develop the Tertiary Industry to Pull Employment Growth in China

Referring to the index of employment elasticity, industry departure degree and relative labor productivity of different industries, this paper made a positive analysis of the status of labor force which is moving towards the tertiary industry and the consequent impact on employment and drew the following conclusions: (1) Since 1990, the primary industry in China has became the net labor out-flowing department, and labor absorbing capacity of the secondary industry has fallen, and the tertiary industry has better employment elasticity and a larger contribution to employment growth than the primary and secondary industries. So, the tertiary one has became the primary department absorbing labor force. (2) Industry structure and employment structure are not in accord with each other in China. (3) Traditional commercial trade, food, real state and new service industry will become the primary industry to absorb labor force.