中国债务结构的演变:基于时间序列的实证研究

虽然我国依然是银行主导的金融市场格局,但企业债券市场也获得长足的发展。我国总体债务结构正在演变,其中企业债券和银行贷款、国债以及股票融资额之间到底有何关系?与此同时,我国的宏观经济环境近20多年发生了巨大变化,一些重要的经济指标如央行基准贷款利率的调整更趋向市场化、经济的货币化程度迅速提高,这些因素是否真正影响到我国宏观债务结构?本文采取时间序列实证分析影响中国债务结构演变的宏观经济因素,分析整体债务结构与宏观经济变量之间的关系,以此理解我国银行主导融资下企业债券发展的演变规律。

An Empirical Study on China Debt Structure Evolution

At present, despite a bank-oriented financial system in China, the enterprise bond market has developed rapidly. China’s debt structure is evolving. What is relationship among the enterprise bond, bank loan and stock? At the same time, China’s macro economic environment has changed quickly in recent 20 years. A number of important economic indicators such as the central bank benchmark interest rate, economic monetization have been adjusted to be marketized, but do these factors really have some influence on China’s macro debt structure? This article studies how these macroeconomic factors to influence debt structure evolution of Chinese by time series analysis focusing on the analysis on the relationship between macroeconomic variables and overall debt structure, also explaining the evolution of enterprise bond development.