Complex Causal Relations and Case Study Methods: The Example of Path Dependence

Colin ElmanDepartment of Political Science, Arizona State University, Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902 e-mail: bennetta{at}georgetown.edu e-mail: colin.elman{at}asu.edu (corresponding author) This article discusses the application of qualitative methodsin analyzing causal complexity. In particular, the essay reviewshow process tracing and systematic case comparisons can addresspath-dependent explanations. The article unpacks the conceptof path dependence and its component elements of causal possibility,contingency, closure of alternatives, and constraints to thecurrent path. The article then reviews four strengths that casestudies bring to the study of path dependence: offering a detailedand holistic analysis of sequences in historical cases, beingsuitable for the study of rare events, facilitating the searchfor omitted variables that might lie behind contingent events,and allowing for the study of interaction effects within oneor a few cases.