Surprise Moves in Negotiation

In a game-theoretic model of a negotiation, a surprise move always has the potential to create uncertainty. This uncertainty can be beneficial to just the player making the move, or it can be beneficial to all the players involved. Moreover, there are situations in which a surprise move can change the very nature of the interactions. In particular, if the interactions follow specified procedures, the surprise move can reduce the effect of the procedures on the outcome. By showing that these results hold in the precisely defined world of game theory, it is argued that they are applicable in the more ambiguous world of real negotiations. At a broader level, the game-theoretic results imply that there is a sense in which the context can never be known for sure. The results also imply that the uncertainty created by surprise moves can be strategically useful.