俄罗斯亚太能源战略评析——基于远东油气管道项目的视角

俄罗斯远东地区油气储量巨大,21世纪初,俄罗斯能源战略明确提出开发东西伯利亚和远东油气资源、加快能源基础设施建设的倡议,并将亚太地区作为未来俄罗斯油气出口地理结构多元化的优先发展方向。西伯利亚力量天然气管道和东西伯利亚—太平洋石油管道是俄罗斯通往亚太地区的两大油气运输基础设施项目,2019年底这两大项目草案均取得了重要进展。随着远东油气管道的建设与开通,中俄能源关系日益密切,双方都致力于从能源关系多样化的角度构筑有利于彼此的能源安全体系,有望结成利益与共的能源命运共同体。同时,俄罗斯也在积极发展与亚太其他国家的能源关系,推动建立亚太能源安全体系。鉴于俄罗斯向亚太市场供应能力的持续增强,将促使原有的区域能源供需关系和国际能源格局发生改变。然而,资金、消费市场、地缘安全环境等不确定因素对俄罗斯亚太能源战略的未来走势形成制约。为此,在当前全球能源生产呈多中心化趋势、能源需求重心东移的背景下,亟须建立行之有效的亚太多边能源对话与合作机制,搭建起亚洲能源生产和消费的共享平台,逐步实现能源基础设施的互联互通以共同防范外部冲击、避免无序竞争,增强区域整体的能源实力。

Analysis of Russia's Asia-Pacific Energy Strategy:From the Perspective of the Far East Oil and Gas Pipeline Project

With a huge reserve of oil and natural gas,Russia,at the start of the twentieth century,proposed the initiative to unlock the oil and gas resources in Eastern Siberia and the Far East,and to accelerate energy infrastructure construction,alongside which the Asia-Pacific area was listed as the priority for Russia’s geographically diverse export structure. The natural gas pipeline Siberia Power and the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline,drafted as two main infrastructures transiting resources to Asia-Pacific,has achieved major developments at the end of 2019. With the construction and operation of the Far East oil and gas pipeline,the Sino-Russia energy relationship has become closer,as the two sides endeavored to build a reciprocal energy security system on the basis of a diversified energy relationship,promising a share-destiny of energy reciprocity. Meanwhile,Russia has been actively developing the energy relationships with other Asia-Pacific states,promoting the establishment of Asia-Pacific energy security system. Given the strengthened supply capacity,changes are to be brought to the energy supply-demand balance in regions and to the international energy structure. Nonetheless,constraints still exist regarding uncertainties such as funding,consuming market and the geo-security environment. Towards this end,against the backdrop of multicentered energy production and the increased demand of eastern areas,it is imperative to establish effective multilateral dialogue and cooperative institutions in Asia-Pacific,to build a sharing platform for Asian energy production and consumption,and to gradually reach the connections among energy infrastructures that can jointly prevent external risks and avoid undisciplined competitions,with the goal of enhancing the overall energy strength of the region.