Human Rights Violations,Weak States,and Civil War |
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Authors: | Nicolas Rost |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Politics and Management, University of Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany;(2) United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) for Somalia, OCHA-Somalia, PO Box 28832, Nairobi, 00200, Kenya |
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Abstract: | This study examines the role of human rights violations as a harbinger of civil wars to come, as well as the links between
repression, state weakness, and conflict. Human rights violations are both part of the escalating process that may end in
civil war and can contribute to an escalation of conflict to civil war, particularly in weak states. The role of government
repression and state weakness in leading to civil war is tested empirically. The results show that both closely correlate
with civil war onset, especially if they are observed in combination. A two-stage model shows that, while low-level conflict
leads to human rights violations, they increase the risk of an escalation to civil war in turn. Human rights violations are
identified as an important aspect of understanding civil war onset as the result of an escalation over time and a clear early
warning sign of wars to come. |
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Keywords: | |
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