COUNTING CRIME BOOMS AMONG NATIONS: EVIDENCE FOR HOMICIDE VICTIMIZATION RATES, 1956 TO 1998*

Constructionists argue that crime booms are rare, modernizationalists predict that booms have been limited to industrializing nations, and globalizationalists claim that booms are universal among nations since World War II. We define crime booms as rates that increase rapidly and exhibit a positive sustained change in direction and use econometric methods to test for booms with homicide victimization rates for 34 nations, 1956 to 1998. Twelve nations satisfied our criteria for booms—too many to support constructionists, but too few to support globalizationalists. In support of modernizationalists, 70% of industrializing nations qualified as having booms, but fewer than 21% of industrialized nations did. Future research should explain industrializing nations that do not experience booms and industrialized nations that do.