Candidate choice before the convention: The democrats in 1984

This paper analyzes prenomination presidential candidate preferences, using data from the Center for Political Studies' 1984 Continuous Monitoring Survey. Among Democratic identifiers, affective evaluations of the candidates were the strongest influence on candidate preference, but judgments concerning the candidates' nomination prospects and electability also influenced candidate preference, as did strength of party identification. The outcomes of particular primaries strongly influenced voters' opinions regarding the candidates' nomination prospects and, indirectly, their electability. Walter Mondale's decisive victory in the New York primary on April 3 apparently led to a bandwagon effect among Democratic voters across the nation; that is, the perception that Mondale was very likely to win the nomination produced a dramatic shift in candidate preference toward Mondale and away from Gary Hart.